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Top 100 (+5) Of 2000-2004


2005-2009 list: http://www.metalstorm.net/users/list.php?list_id=5838
2010-2014 list: http://www.metalstorm.net/users/list.php?list_id=5828
2015-2019 list: http://www.metalstorm.net/users/list.php?list_id=6722

I sure do love this site and it's rating system, it makes finding great music so easy and, even more importantly, when an album is overlooked for a while but starts getting a buzz a few months later, boom, there it appears in the top 20.

All that being said, I still wish there was some way to get a weighted ranking that not only takes the rating of the album into account, but also the number of votes that were cast. For example, an album with a rating of 8.8 and 1000 votes would rank higher than an album with a rating of 8.9 and 20 votes. So, I scraped all the albums on the site with at least 1 vote into a database. Then, taking a leaf out of IMDb's book, I used Bayesian estimation (like the IMDb's Top 250) to calculate a weighted rating for each album based on its Metal Storm rating and the number of votes it had received.

The formula for calculating the Top 100 Albums gives a true Bayesian estimate:
Bayes rating (BR) = ( C × m + R × N ) ÷ ( m + N ) where:
C = average expected rating given...
m = minimum number of votes
R = average rating for the album = (Metal Storm rating)
N = number of votes for the album = (votes)

The way the Bayesian estimator works is that all albums in the database are given and additional m fake votes with an average rating of C, irrespective of how many true votes it already has. Then a new weighted rating is calculated...
If the album has no true votes ( N = 0 ), then BR = ( C × m + R × 0 ) ÷ ( m + 0) = C × m ÷ m = C (the average expected rating).
If the album has a number of true votes equal to the minimum ( N = m ), then BR = ( C × m + R × m ) ÷ ( m + m ) = ( C + R ) × m ÷ 2m = ( C + R ) ÷ 2 (halfway between the two ratings).
If the album has a very large number of true votes ( N >> m ), then BR = ( C × m + R × N ) ÷ ( m + N ) ≈ R × N ÷ N = R (the Metal Storm rating).
This means that the Bayes rating will never equal the Metal Storm rating but will approach it as the true votes grow arbitrarily large.

Now that the maths bit is out of the way, here was my methodology:
Only Studio and EP album types, from the years 2000 to 2004, with at least 1 vote, were included.
The average expected rating (C) was determined by averaging all the Metal Storm ratings from 2000-2004.
The minimum number of votes (m) was determined by calculating the 75th percentile of the votes, rounded to the nearest 10.
I also decided that if an album's Bayes rating was within 0.005 of #100, it would be included too; hence the +5.

C for 2000-2004 = 7.599
m = 30

Number of albums from each year in the list:
2000 - 15
2001 - 27
2002 - 14
2003 - 20
2004 - 29

Ratings are accurate as of 30/10/2023

Created by: Crys1s | 26.09.2019



1. Opeth - Blackwater Park
MS rating:9.259; Votes:3184; Bayes rating:9.244
2. Agalloch - The Mantle
MS rating:9.169; Votes:1718; Bayes rating:9.142
3. Tool - Lateralus
MS rating:9.048; Votes:1427; Bayes rating:9.019
4. Wintersun - Wintersun
MS rating:9.024; Votes:1763; Bayes rating:9.000
5. Ensiferum - Ensiferum
MS rating:8.969; Votes:1291; Bayes rating:8.938
6. Ayreon - The Human Equation
MS rating:8.932; Votes:948; Bayes rating:8.892
7. Moonsorrow - Kivenkantaja
MS rating:8.942; Votes:728; Bayes rating:8.889
8. Nevermore - Dead Heart In A Dead World
MS rating:8.912; Votes:1025; Bayes rating:8.875
9. Porcupine Tree - In Absentia
MS rating:8.895; Votes:868; Bayes rating:8.852
10. Moonsorrow - Voimasta Ja Kunniasta
MS rating:8.907; Votes:644; Bayes rating:8.849
11. Pain Of Salvation - Remedy Lane
MS rating:8.901; Votes:597; Bayes rating:8.839
12. Orphaned Land - Mabool: The Story Of The Three Sons Of Seven
MS rating:8.877; Votes:759; Bayes rating:8.829
13. Green Carnation - Light Of Day, Day Of Darkness
MS rating:8.890; Votes:536; Bayes rating:8.821
14. Ensiferum - Iron
MS rating:8.835; Votes:1129; Bayes rating:8.803
15. Dark Tranquillity - Damage Done
MS rating:8.835; Votes:1139; Bayes rating:8.803
16. Pain Of Salvation - The Perfect Element, Part I
MS rating:8.868; Votes:521; Bayes rating:8.798
17. Windir - 1184
MS rating:8.851; Votes:556; Bayes rating:8.787
18. Riverside - Out Of Myself
MS rating:8.839; Votes:515; Bayes rating:8.771
19. Rammstein - Mutter
MS rating:8.782; Votes:1036; Bayes rating:8.749
20. Arcturus - The Sham Mirrors
MS rating:8.793; Votes:707; Bayes rating:8.745
21. Haggard - Eppur Si Muove
MS rating:8.790; Votes:568; Bayes rating:8.731
22. Lost Horizon - A Flame To The Ground Beneath
MS rating:8.821; Votes:369; Bayes rating:8.729
23. Forest Of Shadows - Where Dreams Turn To Dust
MS rating:9.059; Votes:102; Bayes rating:8.727
24. Edge Of Sanity - Crimson II
MS rating:8.793; Votes:512; Bayes rating:8.727
25. My Dying Bride - The Dreadful Hours
MS rating:8.765; Votes:570; Bayes rating:8.707
26. Summoning - Let Mortal Heroes Sing Your Fame
MS rating:8.783; Votes:433; Bayes rating:8.706
27. The Mars Volta - De-Loused In The Comatorium
MS rating:8.879; Votes:190; Bayes rating:8.704
28. Isis - Panopticon
MS rating:8.772; Votes:443; Bayes rating:8.698
29. Immortal - Sons Of Northern Darkness
MS rating:8.727; Votes:1005; Bayes rating:8.695
30. Symphony X - The Odyssey
MS rating:8.732; Votes:863; Bayes rating:8.694
31. Saturnus - Martyre
MS rating:8.780; Votes:372; Bayes rating:8.691
32. Kamelot - Epica
MS rating:8.727; Votes:929; Bayes rating:8.691
33. Opeth - Deliverance
MS rating:8.700; Votes:1886; Bayes rating:8.683
34. Swallow The Sun - The Morning Never Came
MS rating:8.733; Votes:655; Bayes rating:8.683
35. Mastodon - Leviathan
MS rating:8.700; Votes:1006; Bayes rating:8.668
36. Slumber - Fallout
MS rating:8.758; Votes:343; Bayes rating:8.665
37. Opeth - Damnation
MS rating:8.667; Votes:2010; Bayes rating:8.651
38. Avantasia - The Metal Opera Part I
MS rating:8.688; Votes:789; Bayes rating:8.648
39. Iron Maiden - Brave New World
MS rating:8.659; Votes:2013; Bayes rating:8.643
40. Sonata Arctica - Silence
MS rating:8.679; Votes:801; Bayes rating:8.640
41. Angra - Temple Of Shadows
MS rating:8.686; Votes:669; Bayes rating:8.639
42. Children Of Bodom - Follow The Reaper
MS rating:8.660; Votes:1512; Bayes rating:8.639
43. Symphony X - V: The New Mythology Suite
MS rating:8.682; Votes:724; Bayes rating:8.639
44. Necrophagist - Epitaph
MS rating:8.691; Votes:530; Bayes rating:8.632
45. Bloodbath - Nightmares Made Flesh
MS rating:8.671; Votes:732; Bayes rating:8.629
46. Rhapsody - Dawn Of Victory
MS rating:8.670; Votes:625; Bayes rating:8.621
47. Eternal Tears Of Sorrow - A Virgin And A Whore
MS rating:8.680; Votes:516; Bayes rating:8.621
48. Exodus - Tempo Of The Damned
MS rating:8.667; Votes:643; Bayes rating:8.620
49. System Of A Down - Toxicity
MS rating:8.648; Votes:1079; Bayes rating:8.619
50. Therion - Lemuria
MS rating:8.655; Votes:679; Bayes rating:8.611
51. Isis - Oceanic
MS rating:8.683; Votes:382; Bayes rating:8.604
52. Kamelot - Karma
MS rating:8.642; Votes:749; Bayes rating:8.602
53. Draconian - Where Lovers Mourn
MS rating:8.658; Votes:527; Bayes rating:8.601
54. Immolation - Close To A World Below
MS rating:8.694; Votes:310; Bayes rating:8.597
55. Sentenced - The Cold White Light
MS rating:8.655; Votes:490; Bayes rating:8.594
56. Drudkh - Autumn Aurora
MS rating:8.677; Votes:334; Bayes rating:8.588
57. Nile - In Their Darkened Shrines
MS rating:8.629; Votes:582; Bayes rating:8.578
58. Motörhead - Inferno
MS rating:8.641; Votes:468; Bayes rating:8.578
59. Enslaved - Isa
MS rating:8.625; Votes:581; Bayes rating:8.574
60. Disillusion - Back To Times Of Splendor
MS rating:8.660; Votes:329; Bayes rating:8.571
61. Therion - Secret Of The Runes
MS rating:8.618; Votes:584; Bayes rating:8.568
62. Haggard - Awaking The Centuries
MS rating:8.639; Votes:402; Bayes rating:8.567
63. Lost Horizon - Awakening The World
MS rating:8.660; Votes:306; Bayes rating:8.565
64. Quo Vadis - Defiant Imagination
MS rating:8.680; Votes:253; Bayes rating:8.565
65. Septicflesh - Sumerian Daemons
MS rating:8.619; Votes:540; Bayes rating:8.565
66. Nightwish - Once
MS rating:8.585; Votes:1395; Bayes rating:8.564
67. Windir - Likferd
MS rating:8.648; Votes:341; Bayes rating:8.563
68. Katatonia - Viva Emptiness
MS rating:8.588; Votes:884; Bayes rating:8.556
69. Quo Vadis - Day Into Night
MS rating:8.694; Votes:206; Bayes rating:8.555
70. Falconer - Falconer
MS rating:8.648; Votes:293; Bayes rating:8.551
71. Lamb Of God - Ashes Of The Wake
MS rating:8.583; Votes:842; Bayes rating:8.549
72. Dream Theater - Train Of Thought
MS rating:8.570; Votes:1305; Bayes rating:8.548
73. Falkenbach - Ok Nefna Tysvar Ty
MS rating:8.679; Votes:218; Bayes rating:8.548
74. Dimmu Borgir - Puritanical Euphoric Misanthropia
MS rating:8.577; Votes:977; Bayes rating:8.548
75. Masterplan - Masterplan
MS rating:8.616; Votes:388; Bayes rating:8.543
76. Edguy - Mandrake
MS rating:8.600; Votes:485; Bayes rating:8.542
77. Sigh - Imaginary Sonicscape
MS rating:8.688; Votes:189; Bayes rating:8.539
78. Kalmah - Swampsong
MS rating:8.589; Votes:533; Bayes rating:8.536
79. Enslaved - Below The Lights
MS rating:8.593; Votes:494; Bayes rating:8.536
80. Therion - Sirius B
MS rating:8.575; Votes:619; Bayes rating:8.530
81. Edguy - Hellfire Club
MS rating:8.583; Votes:515; Bayes rating:8.528
82. Evergrey - In Search Of Truth
MS rating:8.593; Votes:391; Bayes rating:8.522
83. My Dying Bride - Songs Of Darkness, Words Of Light
MS rating:8.574; Votes:524; Bayes rating:8.522
84. Kalmah - Swamplord
MS rating:8.572; Votes:540; Bayes rating:8.521
85. Vital Remains - Dechristianize
MS rating:8.636; Votes:231; Bayes rating:8.517
86. Wuthering Heights - Far From The Madding Crowd
MS rating:8.700; Votes:150; Bayes rating:8.516
87. Nightwish - Wishmaster
MS rating:8.539; Votes:1220; Bayes rating:8.516
88. Evergrey - Recreation Day
MS rating:8.581; Votes:408; Bayes rating:8.514
89. Katatonia - Last Fair Deal Gone Down
MS rating:8.549; Votes:714; Bayes rating:8.511
90. Shape Of Despair - Angels Of Distress
MS rating:8.601; Votes:276; Bayes rating:8.503
91. Gamma Ray - No World Order
MS rating:8.553; Votes:528; Bayes rating:8.502
92. Meshuggah - I
MS rating:8.613; Votes:238; Bayes rating:8.500
93. Vader - Litany
MS rating:8.564; Votes:413; Bayes rating:8.499
94. Spiritual Beggars - Ad Astra
MS rating:8.691; Votes:137; Bayes rating:8.495
95. Nightwish - Century Child
MS rating:8.517; Votes:1180; Bayes rating:8.494
96. Kreator - Violent Revolution
MS rating:8.526; Votes:740; Bayes rating:8.490
97. Evergrey - The Inner Circle
MS rating:8.558; Votes:385; Bayes rating:8.489
98. Clutch - Blast Tyrant
MS rating:8.664; Votes:152; Bayes rating:8.489
99. Rhapsody - Power Of The Dragonflame
MS rating:8.538; Votes:520; Bayes rating:8.487
100. Queens Of The Stone Age - Songs For The Deaf
MS rating:8.555; Votes:384; Bayes rating:8.485
101. Behemoth - Demigod
MS rating:8.510; Votes:971; Bayes rating:8.482
102. Devin Townsend - Accelerated Evolution
MS rating:8.561; Votes:335; Bayes rating:8.482
103. Lykathea Aflame - Elvenefris
MS rating:8.624; Votes:186; Bayes rating:8.481
104. Sodom - M-16
MS rating:8.544; Votes:419; Bayes rating:8.481
105. Heavenly - Dust To Dust
MS rating:8.615; Votes:195; Bayes rating:8.480



Disclaimer: All top lists are unofficial and do not represent the point of view of the MS Staff.
[ More lists by Crys1s ]



Comments

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Comments: 2   Visited by: 15 users
09.02.2024 - 23:10
Redel

This is an interesting approach. You should merge all years into one distribution, make a Bayesian Top 200 of all time and compare the resulting ranks for each album with their actual ranks in the MS Top 200.
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15.02.2024 - 12:52
nonZero

Written by Redel on 09.02.2024 at 23:10

This is an interesting approach. You should merge all years into one distribution, make a Bayesian Top 200 of all time and compare the resulting ranks for each album with their actual ranks in the MS Top 200.

100% agree with this, I would be interested in seeing that!
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Top 500 Albums (ordered & rated)
Top 200 Overlooked Albums (with genres)
So I Heard You Like Wintersun... (Time II find new bands)
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